Royal Ascot kicks off on Tuesday the 15th of June, and with cool weather coming it should be a cracking week for us horse racing tips. With traditional huge field handicaps, one of the most important factors when trying to find winners is draw bias.
The ground may be perfect, smashing the arena in winners and preparing for perfection, but if they are drawn on the wrong part of the track it is very hard to win. We’ve gone back over the past decade, looking at the major competitions to give you everything you need to know about the Royal Ascot 2021 drawing bias.
Five two-year-old races on five and six furlongs which probably isn’t strong evidence of drag bias. However, Hai seems the place to be in Windsor Castle Which tends to be the largest area of the group. 18 winners out of ten or more winners have been drawn.
The Coventry More than six furlongs were in the other direction. In the past seven years, thirteen of the twenty-one horses completed in the first three have come from a single character lottery. The Albanian Which is equivalent to fillies no winner is drawn less than 12. Same trajectory and distance, completely opposite draw bias!
The six furnace cavalry charge comes with Wokingham Where the pace seems more important. The mid to low was favored in the past few years after a spell when the high tie was winning. Six of the last eight have run on a good to steady basis and are expected in 2021 with winners coming in at 1, 10, 16, 21, 22 and 27.
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There were only five versions of Buckingham Palace classes. This makes it hard to be very bold in predicting but it is noted that 15/20 to make the first four on their turf are drawn at 21 or higher.
The straight mile is a funny beast, featuring three big hitters during the week, the Royal Hunt Cup, Sandringham and Britannia all seeing huge fields.
Only five horses were drawn with individual shapes in Royal Hunt Cup Earning their first four homes in the last decade, 5/40 is a poor return for 30% of runners. Six of the last ten winners have been drawn 21 or more, with raffle winners across the board.
The Britannia It is a handicap for foals and mating aged three years. The middle hole is marginally favored, with five of the last eight winners drawn in 11-19 giving them freedom which side they go but the put horses have come from all over.
The equivalent foals for Britannia are Sandringham. Interestingly enough, this is an exception to the race where five of the last ten winners are tied 1-5 in stalls. That includes the weak past year when there is generally a huge bias on soft. In general, this is a slightly smaller field and this may be the reason for the bias difference.
It is the circuit races that are in many respects generating the most interest even though they have gone beyond the long rides. A lot is often said about a wide draw in the roundtable which is a disadvantage, but is it true?
Ten furlong races (Wolverton / Hampton CourtYou have a short walk up to the turn at Swinley Bottom. Bias is more average in these two races. Stalls 5, 6 and 7 have produced 11 winners out of the 20 winners in these two races in the past decade.
This drag gives riders more choices in how they ride the race. Both low and high hit the frame on a regular basis and while very high isn’t ideal, it’s not a huge negative.
The big field races twelve furlongs (King George V / Duke of Edinburgh) biased toward high drag. A long run to the turn is useful but is interesting to see clearly.
In the last ten years, four winners have been drawn and thirteen horses placed on 15 or more stalls, that’s 32% of all runners in those stalls. The Duke of Edinburgh has never seen a winner under 10 in the past decade, with four winners out of 12, two of 19 and two of 21! Don’t let the high tie keep you away from anything you imagine on the roundabout.
In races on the straight track, where speed comes in is critical. Despite this, higher drag is still generally preferred, especially on massive field handicaps. More interestingly, the high drag is not a stumbling block to success on the round course which can be a corner in some racers who may be overpriced.
Low numbers can win, and if the dominant good is consistent, it stands a better chance than it does when it goes poorly. However, the general perception after looking at the stats is that from the middle to the top is a favorite on every ride.