Home Horse Racing Randwick Saturday: Preview and Tips

Randwick Saturday: Preview and Tips

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The Sydney race returns to Randwick on Saturday.

The track is currently rated a heavy eight with no more rain expected, so it looks likely to stay near that mark. The rail outside the entire circle is three metres.

Here are my thoughts on the program.

First race: 1200 meters, two-year-old handicap
Verne was an unlucky touch in defeat on his debut, and he didn’t have a clear run until it was too late. It was against In The Congo, whom he meets again here. Then he comfortably continued recording into his second start. Shotgun trainer Annabelle Nesham suggested during the week that he might have been her slipper runner if things had gone earlier. With a few early scratches, he’s made it to the sixth hurdle at this point, which is sure to give him a good path in crossing. He must be right in the end.

Horway came out of the same race and had no luck there either. He was pulled off the wide draw and went for bars running with limited space for a fair portion of the straight line. He ran well and could give a good view of the big possibilities.

The elevation to 1200m now for Park Avenue seems appropriate after you finished getting your chocolates last time. He equalized well in the fourth gate for stellar debutant Jan van Overmeer, and should do well again.

The bet: Vern to win.

Second race: 1500m class 3
Highly priced Street Cred roams here for Mick Smith and jockey Michael Hegney. It’s currently around the $71 mark and has been swinging up to $91 with some bookmakers since the odds were first opened. He tied very well in six, and was the winner of the last start in almost the same trip on the heavy nine track at Goulburn. Had it not been for him losing in the last 50 meters there, he would have won more. The second-placed horse went on to win the next start. Five weeks between rounds here seems fine, considering it was a month between last time.

Statesville dealt with the runner above earlier in his setup but he draws poorly here in Gate 19 – there will be at least three scratches with that. It’s been less than three lengths from Grace And Harmony and Maranoa this setup, which reads well for the highway. The septum is a big question mark.

Cecilia deals with this and has been competitive in highway racing lately. Second place on the last start in the counties looks good for this.

The bet: Unless someone tells me why he’s in those odds, I’ll do a very small play in each direction on Street Cred.

Third race: 1000m BM78
De Grawin is a horse of 1,000 metres, no more. This, combined with the fact that he had very little luck, meant that he could be completely forgiven for his first fiasco. He racked up four impressive wins in a row before his last start, two of them at the metro level. He’s going to take a few moments and look like he’s playing good value, given that a few of his rivals might not handle the track conditions either.

The Hulk’s victory at this distance makes it very difficult to ignore. There is no doubt that his best can make him win. He was also excellent at first, before he was fine at first. He usually develops late starts, which means he is likely to finally settle out of that gate. He must run hard.

Lancaster Bomber’s win over Starspangled Rodeo – who then beat Nudge – reads well for this race. He first hit 61 kilos here, so he might just need this before he becomes more relatable on the next start.

Bet: De Grawin to win.

Fourth race: 1200 metres, BM78
I’m excited to see what Gravina can produce this time around. He was solid in the betting early on, and then deserved to be off to a solid start. The Tycoonist was a distant second in this race and should have gone on to win this past weekend but for terrible luck. His smooth track was his best so far. That includes a win over Blondeau last prep, so track condition isn’t an issue. Rhys Jones is currently burning with his three kilos claim. He’ll be cruising around with just 53.5kg on board, which makes it a good bet.

Bellucci Babe is the only other one in this race that I’m interested in. She’s been great in this preparation, and going up to 1200 for the first time should be fine. She was very unlucky to be caught wide without covering the last start. Still able to quickly occupy third place. However, the state of the path, especially if an eight remains heavy, is kind of a query.

Bet: Gravina wins (best bet).

5th race: 1600m BM78
Affordable Ruby Tuesday walks around here after two average shows in a row. However, both are forgivable for me. Two from behind went away to quickly come out in front. The last start he raced poorly after being slow. Louise Day has the tough job of trying to get her off early without shooting her too often. She is a knight in shape although I support her to do so. Ruby Tuesday was only 1.5 lengths away from the Duais earlier in this setup, so it has a solid power when you put it together. If she manages to get through the barrier and find the lead, she should look carefully at the reasonable possibilities.

Zheng initially fought bravely when she was outdone for third place in three directions to the finish. Her mileage record is 5:2-2-0 so she should finally be here again.

Azarmine and Betty Blooms are among other opportunities.

Bet: Ruby Tuesday to win.

Race 6: 1600m, open handicap
Brutality is doing very well in this setting and looks set to win soon. He was an unlucky third at the start when he fell back to 1,400 metres. At first before that, he was far from Brandenburg and Nudge – the former was placed in the first group, and the latter won the next two fights. The track conditions are in his favour, with a distance of up to 1,600 meters on the spot. The first barrier is the only negative – James Ennis Jr. cut his work from there. If he can find the breaks though he will finish strong.

Third place on the mile seems perfect for Kirwan’s Lane, which was a great final start. He beat Ellsberg there, and is pretty good at riding in his day. There were seven lengths to third on that occasion, so it was a huge victory. Camp O’Shea is in good condition.

The month between rounds is fitting for Order Again, who should be able to run really well here after a good debut in the Scone Cup.

7:1100 meter run
Ballistic Lover is the only three-year-old here, and deals with older horses. Scratching Villami and Our Bellagio Miss helps her get huge chances. She jumps off the outer alley and while there is still another speed inside, she can cross it. At least one Adelong or Embracer would be happy to deliver rather than get caught up in a quick fight. The Majestic Shot declared the Ballistic Lover their last start with a win last weekend. I expect to see a similar round up front again this time, which will make it hard to beat.

Wandabaa can be forgiven when it reaches an altitude of 1,300 meters two back. Outside of this race she was excellent without winning this setup. She did team races most of the campaign period, so her class is a major asset to this. Coming back to the 1100m here, it’s a big chance again.

Fituese must forgive her recent failure at first after it was caught on a large scale. It’s a great chance to come back here with better luck running.

Bet: Ballistic Lover to Win (Next Best).

Horse racing generic 3 -

8th race: 1,300m, 94pm
New Arrangement is an interesting runner here. He didn’t win from a distance or first, but applying blinkers for the first time might indicate he’s ready to go here. He looked sharp at the top of the race in his last trial, before being given a very easy time at the finish. Jones’ claim brought him up to 51 kilos so he can take a big look at the double-digit odds.

Dream Circle is back with an excellent arrangement this preparation. He’s had two quality wins against a decent competitor, most recently defeating Canasta and CC at this track and distance. He also has a knowledgeable intern on board, so he’s dropping in weights. He should be able to hold a spot close enough to the first hurdle, given the lack of apparent speed in the race.

The bet: Hedge bets on New Arrangement and Dream Circle win – 50% on each.

Race 9:1400 meters 78
Solid at first, Canasta descended below length to a quality horse at the Dream Circle. His style of racing in general benefits from some of his match fitness, which is shown in his second strong record 3: 2-1-0. He plans to get into the lead comfortably enough and should be able to hold on to it. His remote record is impressive with two wins and a second of four, so this race seems to be dedicated to him.

The CC was excellent for the first time coming out of the same race as Canasta. Close late for the third there. He might need a touch drier and drier than he’s going to get on Saturday, so whatever he’s doing here I’m keen to follow him up on his next start.

Blondeau was well supported early in the betting. He and Cisco Bay are among other opportunities.

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